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Measuring MFA’s Defensive Muscle in 2025

A.R. Perez, Netlok. 7/8/2025

Multi-factor authentication (MFA) was once hailed as a near-perfect shield, yet recent headline breaches prove attackers are not only slipping past it—they are doing so at an accelerating pace. This report ranks today’s most common MFA combinations from weakest to strongest and quantifies the sharp rise in MFA-related attacks between 2023 and 2025. It should be noted that PhotolokÒ (a passwordless MFA factor that uses proprietary-coded photos) is not included in this analysis.

Why MFA Strength Varies

Every MFA scheme marries at least two factors—knowledge (password/PIN), possession (token/phone), or inherence (biometric). Security depends on:

  • Transport security (Is any secret sent over a channel that can be intercepted?)
  • Phishing resistance (Can the user’s factor be replayed to a fake site?)
  • Device binding (Is the factor cryptographically locked to a specific device?)
  • User behavior (Can social engineering or “MFA fatigue” trick users into approving?)

Ranking MFA Combinations

RankTypical CombinationCore WeaknessesCore StrengthsVerdict
8 (Strongest)Hardware passkey + on-device biometric (FIDO2/WebAuthn)None of the factor data ever leaves the device; resistant to phishing and replay 1, 2Cryptographic challenge tied to hardware; biometric unlock 3 4Phishing-resistant, passwordless gold standard
7Password + hardware security key (FIDO2/U2F)Requires user to manage key inventoryCryptographic possession factor blocks replay 5, 1Best “password-plus” model
6Password + smart-card/PKI token (PIV/CAC)Complex deployment & driver issuesMutual certificate validation; device binding 2Enterprise-grade where supported
5Password + platform biometric (e.g., Windows Hello, Face ID)Biometric unlock is local; underlying session can be phished if fallback to password allowed 4User-friendly; device-tied secrets6Good for mainstream use but still password-dependent
4Password + number-matching push or TOTP-hardware tokenPhishable one-time codes; token theft possible7, 8Short validity window, no SMS channelMid-level protection
3Password + generic authenticator-app TOTP (30-second code)Real-time phishing proxies capture code 9No carrier reliance; easy rollout 7Better than SMS, still phishable
2Password + push notification (“Approve/Deny”)MFA-fatigue bombing & social-engineering approvals10, 11User convenienceFrequently bypassed by prompt bombing
1 (Weakest)Password + SMS/voice codeSIM-swap, SS7 intercept, no encryption 12, 13Universal availabilityShould be phased out per CISA and NIST guidance 214

Key Takeaways

  • SMS and voice codes are now the attacker’s easiest door. SIM-swapping and SS7 attacks routinely hijack these one-time codes 12, 13.
  • Push bombing moved classic push to “low trust.” Repeated prompts trick users into approvals; number-matching mitigates but doesn’t eliminate risk 10, 9.
  • TOTP is safer than SMS but still phishable. Transparent reverse-proxy kits like EvilProxy harvest codes in real time 9.
  • Phishing-resistant authentication begins with FIDO2/WebAuthn. Hardware-backed keys or passkeys neutralize man-in-the-middle attacks by binding credentials to the correct origin 12.

The Surge in MFA-Focused Attacks (2023-2025)

YearRepresentative StudyMetric ReportedIndicator of MFA Attack Activity
2023Okta “State of Secure Identity 2023”12.7% of all MFA attempts on Okta’s Customer Identity Cloud were outright bypass attacks 15Baseline showing bypass in production traffic
2023Kroll “Rise in MFA Bypass” (Oct 2023)90% of BEC cases investigated had MFA in place when accounts were compromised 16Confirms attackers pivoting to MFA-enabled targets
2024Cisco Talos IR Q1 2024≈50% of incident-response cases involved failure or bypass of MFA controls 10, 17Doubling of bypass prevalence over 2023 baseline
2024Proofpoint “State of the Phish 2024”Phishing frameworks such as EvilProxy observed in ≈1 million threats per month, explicitly harvesting MFA cookies 18Commodity kits fueling large-scale bypass
2025Netrix Global “New Wave of MFA Bypass Attacks” (Jun 2025)Advises a “surge” but no percentage; corroborated by FRSecure IR 2024-25 where 79% of BEC victims had correctly implemented MFA yet were breached 19MFA bypass now dominant in BEC incidents
2025eSentire Q1 2025 ReportBEC attacks (often MFA bypass via Tycoon 2FA) rose 60% YoY, now 41% of all attacks 20Attack volume and proportion at all-time high

Visualizing the Climb

YearReported MFA-Attack Rate* Year-over-Year Change
202312.7%–-90% depending on vertical (baseline) —
2024≈50% of IR cases involve MFA bypass 10, 17+~35 pp from Okta baseline
 79% of BEC victims breached despite MFA 19+29 pp vs 2024 IR data

*Rates come from different datasets (CIAM traffic, IR engagements, BEC breaches). While scopes vary, all show the same climbing trajectory.

Why the Rate Keeps Rising

Commodity Phishing-as-a-Service (PhaaS)

  • Kits like Tycoon 2FA and EvilProxy package adversary-in-the-middle techniques for <$300 20, 21.
  • No elite skills required; proxy auto-captures TOTP, push, and even session cookies.

Token Theft & Session Hijacking

  • Malware or browser extensions steal stored cookies, rendering second factors moot 9, 19.
  • Stolen session tokens sell in criminal markets for as little as $10 per corporate user 20.

MFA Fatigue & Social Engineering

  • Push-bombing remains effective: Uber, Microsoft, and EA all fell to approval spamming 11, 9.
  • Help-desk impersonation convinces IT staff to reset credentials or enroll attacker devices 16.

Weak Factor Mix

  • SMS remains the default in consumer apps—96% of Coinbase account-takeover victims relied on SMS OTP 13.
  • Many enterprises lack Conditional Access or token-binding, letting hijacked sessions roam free 22.

Hardening the Human-Machine Perimeter

1. Phase Out Legacy Factors

  • Block SMS/voice codes for privileged accounts; require authenticator apps or keys instead12, 2.

2. Enforce Phishing-Resistant MFA

  • Deploy FIDO2/WebAuthn passkeys or security keys for all admins and high-risk roles 12.
  • Use token-binding or Microsoft Entra ID’s token protection to neutralize session-theft attacks 22.

3. Strengthen Push Workflows

  • Mandate number-matching or challenge-response for any push-based approvals 9.
  • Limit consecutive push requests and alert security operations on excessive prompts 11.

4. Layer Conditional Access & Risk-Based Controls

  • Require device compliance, geolocation heuristics, and continuous session monitoring to catch hijacked tokens in flight 22.

5. Educate to Eradicate MFA Fatigue

  • Simulate AiTM phishing and push-bomb drills so users recognize and report anomalies 23, 16.
  • Reinforce “never approve unexpected prompts” in monthly training cycles.

Conclusion

Attackers’ ability to sidestep MFA has grown from isolated exploits in 2023 to industrial-scale commodity services in 2025. Organizations that cling to password-plus-SMS or push-only MFA now occupy the bottom rung of the strength ladder and face a sharply rising threat curve. Yet the solution is within reach: broad adoption of phishing-resistant, device-bound authentication—coupled with risk-aware access controls—flips the cost curve back onto the attacker. Upgrade the factors, shrink the attack surface, and keep users from approving the next rogue prompt. One novel method of upgrading factors is to use Photolok – a passwordless factor that uses steganographic coded photos that also protects against AI/ML attacks as well as provides lateral movement penetrations due to its unique architecture.

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